Market Briefing
Published: June 2009 Table of Contents Executive Summary Each quarter the 'Africa & Middle East Telecom-Week' team of researchers combs through the official financial reports issued by the regional mobile phone operators across Africa and the Middle East. This process provides the basis for the subscriber numbers and market share data country-by-country.
Many nations also sport an active regulator, many of whom are market-focused and provide good quality analysis and data sets for fixed and mobile operators, as well as also providing detailed snapshots of both Internet and broadcasting activities. 
Many of the smaller, independent operators do not publish formal quarterly or annual data, or indeed publicly available financial reports. However, their senior management are often active in the local market and the research team keeps up-to-date by monitoring local newsfeeds and blogs.
Last, but not least, are the correspondents and local operator staff who regularly provide detailed insights directly from market.
Generally, the statistics are 'as published' by the operator, and are intended to represent all active lines that have been used at least once in the previous quarter. However, it is also known that some operators use different criteria, leading to regulators in a number of markets requesting that data be published on recognised criteria, rather than a cumulative-user figure. This was particularly so in Saudi Arabia and Egypt last year, although data sets from the operators concerned are still awaited at the time of publication (June 2009).
This has led the research team to take greater care when presenting data from these markets to ensure that individual operator data is weighted in line with expected and overall market growth.
In the case of Egypt the regulator has subsequently published quarterly operator values, allowing accurate figures to be provided. In the case of Saudi Arabia the data has been modelled, based on known activity levels of both the operator concerned and its competitors.
Etisalat is a case in point; it claimed for the end of 2007 that its Moov operation in West Africa had some 2.9 million subscribers. This is unlikely, particularly when compared with data released by individual operators in the affected markets. Not only are the values high in some markets where the regulator has published top-line market data, but also there remains question marks over the current ownership status of some of the operations, following court cases and ministerial intervention in some markets in 2008.
It is also worth noting that the requirement to register pre-paid mobile users is growing across the region. The latest to be affected is Bahrain, where the TRA announced its intention to register some 600,000 pre-paid mobile subscribers, or some 45 percent of the mobile population, in a 3-month programme starting September 2008. In late December the TRA extended the deadline to 31 March 2009, as despite the active publicity campaign undertaken by TRA and operators, there were still a significant number of unregistered subscribers. The deadline was not extended for subscribers who had already told their operator that they did not intend to register their details, and these users where disconnected from 1 January 2009.
Batelco's media relations General Manager Ahmed Al Janahi was quoted by the Gulf Daily News as saying that Batelco was fully aware of the Telecommunications Authority (TRA) directive on the suspension of unregistered lines which would be implemented after the latest deadline on registration expired.
Tanzania's Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA) has also ordered all the nation's telecom service providers to record the details of pre-paid SIM card users to deal with security threats posed by some GSM subscribers. The regulator stated that the pre-paid subscribers without registration should register with their respective telecom service providers within a period of six months from 1 July 2009.
Morocco had to deal with a million or so unregistered SIM cards, with Meditel accounting for the majority of them. The orginal ANRT sponsored campaign failed leading to the Minister of Industry, Trade and New Technologies, Ahmed Reda Chami telling Parliament that ANRT is developing a plan to limit the number of unregistered subscribers. At one point it was being suggested that as many as 12 million Jawal subscribers were still unregistered - this would have represented a remarkable 82 percent of the subscriber base as at 3Q 2008.
By way of comparison Algeria had more than 11 million unregistered SIM cards. The three month programme which ended in October saw some 2.6 million pre-paid unregistered SIM cards deactivated (9 percent of the 29.2 million active subscribers prior to the start of the operation). According to Algeria's ARPT this operation has given revised subscriber numbers for each operator of Djezzy 14,492,091; Mobilis 7,177,602 and Nedjma 4,998,174. These revised totals are reflected in the 4Q 2008 totals.
Burkina Faso's Regulatory Authority (ARTEL) in September announced steps to identify illegal usage of spectrum, and register SIM card owners. Director General of ARTEL, Eleazar Lankoandé said that there were concerns about misuse of phones. Operators were given a calendar month to update their retail systems, with unregistered SIM cards to be disabled at the end of the period.
Although pre- and post-paid data is available in the bigger and more mature markets, it is lacking or questionable in some of the less well developed markets, and therefore for the purposes of this document has been ignored. However, it can be assumed that pre-paid is the dominant mobile plan across Africa. Likewise, there are now outcrops of 3G usage, notably in South Africa, and along the North African coast. Mobile subscriber data are inclusive of both 2 and 3G users.
The mobile data includes GSM and CDMA networks, but excludes fixed and CDMA-wireless networks, which are classed as an extension of the fixed network. Pricing and Formats
PDF (1-5 Users): GBP 299 (Order Online) PDF + Excel (1-5 users): GBP 399 (Order Online) PDF + Excel + Wallchart (5+ Users): GBP 499 (Order Online) The Africa & Middle East Telecoms Market Opportunities 2009 Wallchart: 
|
